This project investigates the intersection of data analysis, modeling, and public health policy during the COVID-19 pandemic. Collaborating with my colleague, I developed a comprehensive forecasting model that examines global and state-level trends while simulating the effects of varying lockdown measures. The analysis provides actionable insights into the critical role of early intervention in shaping pandemic trajectories, echoing themes of interconnected systems and human impact often explored in my art installations.

The analysis sought to visualize how different lockdown policies, inspired by countries such as South Korea and Italy, could mitigate the spread of COVID-19. It focused on the timing and rigidity of measures, using data to explore outcomes under severe, moderate, or delayed enforcement scenarios.

Methods:

• Data Integration: Collated and analyzed raw data from global, national, and state-level sources to track pandemic growth trends.
• Scenario Modeling: Built a US forecasting model to compare outcomes of different lockdown strategies, highlighting the dramatic effects of early enforcement.
• State-Level Insights: Conducted a cohort analysis using urban walkability scores as a proxy for population density, identifying their correlation with disease spread and social distancing outcomes.

Key Findings:

1. Early and strict lockdown measures significantly reduce the rate of infections, with even a few days of delay causing exponential differences in outcomes.
2. Growth trends in countries like Italy show encouraging declines post-lockdown, while US growth remains steep, driven by delayed testing and enforcement.
3. Cities with high walkability scores tend to experience higher spread rates due to population clustering, further emphasizing the importance of mobility restrictions and distancing measures.

Policy Impact:
The model’s findings were shared with policymakers, and was reviewed by the head of the Senate Intelligence Committee, to provide forward-looking insights into the long-term impact of COVID-19. The research informed advocacy for immediate countermeasures, underscoring the critical importance of early action to save lives and mitigate system strain.